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12/7/11
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White forecast good for Utah
The outlook for this winter’s mountain snow looks good — for anyone depending on the spring runoff — not so good for anyone who dreads the white stuff. “Last year’s La Nina — wetter than normal — winter brought record snows to northern Utah, and another one, perhaps not as severe, is forecast for this winter,” said Lt. Gov. Greg Bell. State and local officials met with Bell and Gov. Gary Herbert Thursday at the State Capitol to discuss the forecast and review last springs flooding. Bell told the Vernal Express that depending on your location in-state, it could be very dry downstate or very wet upstate. “The wettest three months in Utah history occurred last year between March 15 and June 15,” he said. Given the severity of the flooding, officials looked to prepare the state before the spring runoff arrives. Randy Julander, state snowpack specialist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service, provided the debriefing to officials. Julander outlined the current conditions saying Utah’s three leading indicators place the state in good shape going into the winter. “First, soil moisture, which is a predecessor to runoff; is pretty close to average, meaning the higher the soil moisture the less is lost to replenishing moisture,” he said. Second, reservoir storage statewide is near 85 percent of capacity right now, according to Julander. “We could fill the reservoirs of the Uintah Basin with just winter stream flow alone without the snow melt next year. It’s almost too good,” he said. Julander said the Basin’s reservoir operators will need to monitor the snowpack throughout the winter season to determine when releases may be needed. The final prognosticator, the La Nina climatic condition, tends to bring average or above-average snowpack to northern Utah at least 80 percent of the time. “It doesn’t get much better than that,” Julander said. Flooding along streams and rivers in the Basin this year damaged farmlands and roadways but spared most residential areas for the most part according to commissioner Mark Raymond. The Bureau of Reclamation conducted dam releases at a rate to 8,600 cfs by mid-June from Flaming Gorge in order to decrease the potential impact of high flows. Flood waters did not recede in the low lands south of Ouray or Myton until after the Fourth of July.
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